Preliminary electoral projections show a potential neck and neck race between Senators Obama and McCain, but Gallup poll tells another story
Today, CNN released their Electoral Projections for the upcoming November election. These projections are based off of “a number of factors: polling, state voting trends and more”.
In what CNN deems “safe” states (nearly certain to vote for that candidate), Barack Obama leads with 153 electors compared to 125 for McCain. Safe states for Senator Obama include the likes of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, and California. Texas, Arizona, and Mississippi are three states considered “safe” for McCain.
On the other hand, McCain has more states that CNN believes are “leaning” (showing present tendencies to vote for) McCain. The 69 electors “leaning” for McCain include states like Louisiana and Indiana. At this time, Senator Obama has Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington “leaning” his way; accounting for 37 electors.
As expected, this election will once again hinge on the “swing states” (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.) that CNN currently deems a “toss up”. These 12 states account for 154 electoral votes; representing 29% of the total electoral count.
Meanwhile, the most recent Gallup poll shows that Barack Obama currently holds a 6% (48% to 42%) lead over his Republican counterpart. This figure is actually up one percentage point from when Senator Obama effectively claimed the Democratic Party nomination. The 6 percentage point gap is also an encouraging number because this represents Senator Obama’s largest advantage since he and McCain have been polled against one another.
These figures, specifically CNN’s electoral projections, exhibit the close race that faces this country. It will be immensely important for Rhode Islanders to sure up support for Senator Obama within the state as well as elsewhere. Rhode Islanders who support Barack Obama have the ability to reach out to other states, such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, to help Senator Obama capture the 270 electoral votes necessary to claim the Presidency and to spur the change our country needs.
For more Election coverage and a map displaying the Electoral Projections visit CNN.com.